The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. household energy spending to move in different directions this winter, depending on the fuel a home uses and forecast temperatures in each region. The agency says lower natural gas and propane prices should cut costs for those households, while higher electricity and heating oil prices should push bills up.
EIA says homes that heat with heating oil, about 3% of U.S. homes and mostly in the Northeast, could see the largest increase. It forecasts spending on heating oil will rise 21% from last winter, and that the average price of heating oil will be 34% higher this winter, although warmer forecast temperatures are expected to partly offset that increase.
For the more than 40% of homes that heat with electricity, EIA forecasts a 4% increase in electricity bills on average. It expects winter energy expenditures to fall 9% for homes heating with natural gas and 3% for homes heating with propane.
The agency also says distillate fuel stocks are low heading into winter, with fourth-quarter 2026 inventories expected to be about 11% below the five-year average. It attributes that to reduced global refining activity, higher international prices and stronger demand for U.S. distillate exports, which were up 20% through the first seven months of 2026 from a year earlier.
