Money
Fed minutes show most officials saw another rate increase likely in 2026
September FOMC minutes show why officials raised rates and why most saw another increase as likely by year-end, depending on incoming data.
Official Federal Reserve dataLast checked
Federal funds target range
3.75–4.00%
Latest decision
3.75–4.00%Read the statement (opens in a new tab)
The Fed’s policy range for overnight lending between banks. It is not the interest rate on a mortgage, credit card or savings account.
The path of policy
Where rates have been
Target-range changes, by the date they took effect.
| Effective date | Target range | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75–4.00% | +25 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) | |
| 3.50–3.75% | −25 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) | |
| 3.75–4.00% | −25 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) | |
| 4.00–4.25% | −25 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) | |
| 4.25–4.50% | −25 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) | |
| 4.50–4.75% | −25 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) | |
| 4.75–5.00% | −50 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) | |
| 5.25–5.50% | +25 bp | Fed (opens in a new tab) |
25 bp = 0.25 percentage point. Meetings that leave rates unchanged do not add a row.
Dates to watch
FOMC calendar
Meeting dates, policy statements and the full minutes.
- Jan27–28
- Mar17–18Past meetingProjections
- Apr28–29
- Jun16–17Past meetingProjections
- Jul28–29
- Sep15–16Past meetingProjections
- Oct27–28Starts in 18 daysDocuments will be linked when available
- Dec8–9Scheduled meetingProjectionsDocuments will be linked when available
“Projections” marks a meeting scheduled to include the Summary of Economic Projections. Dates may change.
Check the Fed’s calendar (opens in a new tab)Reading the decisionOne rate.
One rate.
Different effects.
The decision matters, but so does the message about what comes next. The Fed also uses forward guidance to shape expectations.
How policy reaches markets (opens in a new tab)The US economy
Lower borrowing costs can encourage households to spend and businesses to invest and hire. Stronger demand can also add pressure on prices. These effects take time.
The Fed’s explanation (opens in a new tab)Stocks, bonds & the dollar
Policy influences financial conditions, including stock and bond prices, longer-term rates and exchange rates. A single rate decision does not tell you where each market will finish the day.
The transmission channels (opens in a new tab)Bitcoin & crypto
A rate decision is not a reliable Bitcoin price signal. A 2023 study hosted by the New York Fed found no systematic response to monetary surprises in its 2017–2022 sample. That historical finding is not a forecast for the next meeting.
Read the study and its limits (opens in a new tab)
Beyond the decision
More money stories The economy, explained
Reporting and analysis on policy, household finances and markets.
Where these numbers come from
Rates come from the Federal Reserve’s target-range history. Meeting dates and document links come from the FOMC calendar. We check the official sources hourly and show the last successful check above.
The current rate uses the effective date. A policy statement can announce a change before it takes effect. The history table lists rate changes, so an unchanged decision will not create a new row.
If a source check fails, this page keeps the last verified snapshot and marks delayed data. Future meetings are scheduled dates, not forecasts of rate decisions.
Snapshot updated: .